As of today, January 23, 2026, your assessment aligns with the official position held by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian government. Despite intense diplomatic pressure from the United States and the Kremlin, Ukraine remains firm that it will not formally cede territory in exchange for a peace deal. The situation is currently at a critical junction due to several high-stakes developments: 1. The “Abu Dhabi Talks” (Current Weekend) Trilateral negotiations between the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia are scheduled to begin this weekend in Abu Dhabi. These talks follow a flurry of “shuttle diplomacy” by U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. While President Trump has claimed that a deal is “nearly ready,” the territorial issue remains the primary dealbreaker. 2. The 28-Point Peace Plan A controversial peace proposal—often referred to in diplomatic circles as the “28-point plan”—has been the center of recent debates. Key tensions include: The Russian Demand: The Kremlin is insisting that Ukraine fully withdraw its troops from the Donbas and formally recognize Russian sovereignty over occupied regions (Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson). The Ukrainian Refusal: Zelenskyy has stated that while 90% of a peace framework might be agreeable (such as security guarantees and economic “tariff-free zones”), Ukraine will not legally sign away its land. 3. Public Sentiment vs. Official Policy Recent polling from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (January 2026) shows a complex shift in Ukrainian public opinion: 72% of Ukrainians expressed they might support a plan that freezes the front lines to stop the bloodshed, provided there are “ironclad” security guarantees. However, there is zero majority support for the legal recognition of these lands as Russian. The distinction is “de facto” vs. “de jure”—meaning a ceasefire might happen, but Ukraine refuses to grant Russia legal ownership of the territory. 4. Recent Escalations The refusal to concede territory comes amidst a brutal winter campaign. As of this week: Energy Crisis: Russian strikes have left nearly 60% of Kyiv without power. Front Line Stability: While Russia has made marginal gains in the east (about 63 square miles in the last month), the front lines remain largely stagnant, reinforcing the Ukrainian military’s belief that they can hold their positions without surrendering land. Would you like me to look into the specific security guarantees being proposed to replace the NATO membership demand, or perhaps more detail on the upcoming Abu Dhabi summit?
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